President Donald Trump recently announced an “economic D-Day” in the war against Iran. The markets took this as bad news. Having had little success in defeating the Iranians militarily, officials in Washington now hope to win by increasingly “weaponizing” the international economy.
But widening a war is not the same as winning one. Indeed, this new strategy simply plays into Western structural weaknesses. The United States does not care about victory over Iran as much as Tehran cares about avoiding defeat, which they equate to regime survival.
War is a contest. Resistance need not be futile (pushing back against the Borg from the Star Trek franchise). One can win either by defeating an adversary in battle or by convincing the enemy that defeat is inevitable. The latter approach—which includes strategies like terrorism, insurgency, and wars of attrition—is not pretty. Still, it is the comparative advantage of those with less military might but greater resolve.
As recent U.S. experience demonstrates, even the world’s most capable military can lose a war now and then. Polling data has shown that the U.S. public broadly disapproves of Trump’s aggression against Iran. Leaders in Tehran can read the polls, too. So, they have chosen to go after American resolve, rather than confronting U.S. capabilities.
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