The June 26 trilateral framework between the United States, Israel, and Lebanon sits on shaky ground nearly three weeks after its signing. While the deal was meant to end the fighting between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah and lead to an Israeli withdrawal, the details of that agreement diverge from both its own stated objectives and the broader regional negotiation framework under the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding. As a result, the new framework is entrenching Israeli control and occupation over sovereign Lebanese territory, possibly indefinitely, while increasing the risk of civil conflict inside Lebanon.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio kicked off trilateral talks with Israel and Lebanon on April 14, hosting five rounds of talks that produced the framework and its security annex. Initially, the negotiations seemed doomed; Israel hardly wished for a ceasefire in Lebanon but similarly hoped to avoid publicly diverging from President Donald Trump. In contrast, the Lebanese state was, and remains, too weak to resist American pressure.
Israel’s maximalist objectives in its operations against Hezbollah immediately dictated the direction of the talks. Statements following initial rounds reflected its interests and the common inability of Washington to differentiate itself as a neutral mediator, leaving Lebanon limited space to repeatedly request a ceasefire as it faced thousands of Israeli bombs. Israeli leaders likely understood that its hardline stance in the negotiations would either cause them to collapse, allowing it to continue its operations in Lebanon while possibly renewing them with Iran, or force Beirut’s capitulation in an eventual deal.
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