In July, Russia became the first country to formally recognize Taliban rule in Afghanistan. Despite the deep antagonism between the two nations dating back to the bloody Soviet intervention (1979–1989), this rapprochement is rooted in a strategic rationale given the isolation both regimes confront on the international stage.
This important milestone for the Taliban raises some key questions about American strategy in Central Asia. In particular, should Washington seek to counterbalance against Russian and Chinese influence in this dynamic region?
After the Taliban seized power in Kabul in August 2021, precipitating a chaotic but long overdue American departure from the country, Russia responded pragmatically. While withholding formal recognition of the new Taliban government, the Kremlin retained their embassy in Kabul. By October 2021, Moscow was hosting Taliban officials for meetings. In September 2022, Russia signed trade agreements with the new Afghan government that included discounted petroleum, wheat, and gas.
However, on September 5, 2022, ISIS orchestrated a suicide bombing outside the Russian embassy in Kabul, causing the deaths of Russian personnel. This highlights a tension in the Russian-Afghanistan relationship: terrorism and extremism. To Russia, ISIS represents a major threat, not least because Russia has its own large and growing population of Muslims that could prove susceptible to radicalization.
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Events on Afghanistan
