At what point in a negotiation do you conclude that the other side is deliberating stalling? In business, the answer to this question is the definition of whether a sale goes through or dies on the vine. In war, it’s a matter of life and death.
Nearly one month since President Donald Trump’s administration opened indirect peace talks between Ukraine and Russia, many have already concluded that the effort is slowly dying, if not already dead. None of the temporary, short-term ceasefire arrangements the White House has struck have been implemented. The 30-day truce, presented with fanfare on March 11, was quickly watered down by Russian President Vladimir Putin after he questioned how the arrangement would work, who would be responsible for ensuring the parties met their commitments and how violators would be punished for breaching the terms. Due to Russian resistance, the 30-day ceasefire on land, air and sea soon became a 30-day ceasefire on energy infrastructure. Even that deal was apparently too much for the combatants to follow through on—Ukraine and Russia continue to hit each other’s power stations and oil depots.
The Black Sea ceasefire initiative, unveiled on March 25, isn’t doing much better. The Trump administration hoped to use a truce in this critical waterway as a starting point for a broader discussion about ending the 3-year-old war for good. But Putin had other ideas, tying a halt in hostilities to the West readmitting certain Russian banks into the West’s financial network. The Europeans saw this play for what it was: a ploy by Putin to chip away at the Western-organized sanctions regime without first having to withdraw his troops from Ukraine.
Putin’s obstructionism has led Washington’s allies in Europe to call the entire diplomatic effort a goner. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has accused Russia of “just playing games.” United Kingdom Foreign Secretary David Lammy blasted Putin for stonewalling efforts to bring the fighting to an end. French President Emmanuel Macron had the same assessment. The Ukrainians, of course, never bought into the idea that negotiating a just and lasting peace with Putin was even possible.
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