Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Kyiv has been adamant about its desire to seek what it labels a “just peace.” Just this past September, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke at the United Nations, saying that “there can be no just peace without Ukraine.” Zelensky did not define exactly what a “just peace” would look like, but it likely involves what he calls his “peace formula” which, among other things, demands that Russia withdraw all its forces from occupied Ukrainian territory and that Russian leadership be held responsible for war crimes.
This rhetoric has been used by the Biden administration as well. Also speaking to the UN, President Joe Biden said the war would continue until a “just and durable peace” was secured. And last year, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking at the Summit for Democracy, argued that “for peace to be just, it must uphold the principles at the heart of the UN Charter: sovereignty, territorial integrity, independence.” He argued that the peace must also ensure that Russia “can’t simply rest and refit its troops, and then relaunch the war at a time more advantageous to it.” In his next sentence, he fully endorsed Zelensky’s peace formula.
The problem is that such a “just peace” is a fantasy; this should have been obvious to Blinken in 2023, when the war had stalled to a stalemate. But it should be crystal-clear today, in late 2024, as Russia slowly but surely advances into Ukraine’s territory, including areas previously liberated by Ukraine during its vaunted Kharkiv offensive in late 2022. The pace of Russia’s gains today has prompted the U.S. intelligence community to assess that the war is no longer a stalemate.
The core problem comes from the fact that such an idea of justice, while noble, can only be carried out with the threat of force. Indeed, that is how justice works within any state: If the government cannot successfully threaten force, it will not be listened to. If the IRS could not threaten audits, people would likely not do their taxes. If the police could not make arrests or issue fines, people would likely commit more crimes.
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