Defense Priorities Defense Priorities
  • Policy Topics
    • Israel-Iran
    • Ukraine-Russia
    • NATO
    • China
    • Syria
  • Research
    • Briefs
    • Explainers
    • Reports
  • Programs
    • Grand Strategy Program
    • Military Analysis Program
    • Asia Program
    • Middle East Program
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Media
  • About
    • Mission & Vision
    • People
    • Jobs
    • Contact
  • Donate
Select Page
Home / China / Understanding the deterrence gap in the Taiwan strait
China, Asia, Taiwan

February 12, 2024

Understanding the deterrence gap in the Taiwan strait

By Peter Harris

What is stopping China from invading Taiwan? In the past, it was overdetermined that Beijing would not use force to compel reunification. Not only did China lack the capabilities to execute a swift and decisive conquest of the island, but China’s leaders since 1979 used to believe that peaceful unification was both possible and vastly more preferable to military solutions. Today, however, the military balance of power has shifted decisively, enabling an amphibious invasion from a capabilities standpoint in the not-too-distant future, while prospects of peaceful unification have faded. As such, it is now something of a conventional wisdom that a Chinese invasion has become more likely than not.

We agree with these pessimistic assessments. Of course, no analyst can say with certainty when or why a war over Taiwan might be triggered. Those who project auras of inevitability are wrong to do so. But the changing geopolitical situation around Taiwan cannot be ignored. It is only because deterrence across the Taiwan Strait was strong that past crises over the island’s political status could unfold without causing an invasion. Now that deterrence has weakened, there are few if any guardrails to prevent current or future crises from escalating to become a full-blown war.

Read at War on the Rocks

Author

Photo of Peter Harris

Peter
Harris

Non-Resident Fellow

Defense Priorities

More on Asia

op-edNorth Korea, Air power, Asia, Balance of power, Global posture, Land power, Naval power

Trump’s North Korea Conundrum

By Daniel DePetris

June 12, 2025

In the mediaMilitary analysis, Asia, Naval power

Jennifer Kavanagh on BBC News: Review of AUKUS pact is warranted

Featuring Jennifer Kavanagh

June 11, 2025

op-edAsia

US-Korea alliance to change under Lee Jae-myung

By Daniel DePetris

June 10, 2025

op-edAsia

The US-ROK alliance will change under Lee Jae-myung

By Daniel DePetris

June 4, 2025

op-edChina, Asia, Taiwan

How big of a threat is China really?

By Daniel DePetris

June 3, 2025

op-edChina, Asia, Taiwan

Pete Hegseth’s Taiwan speech risks igniting conflict with China

By Lyle Goldstein

June 2, 2025

Events on China

See All Events
virtualGreat power competition, Balance of power, China, Grand strategy, Middle East

Past Virtual Event: U.S.-China competition and the value of Middle East influence

June 10, 2025
virtualChina, Alliances, Balance of power, Diplomacy, Grand strategy, Russia

Past Virtual Event: China-Russia: Cooperation or a no-limits alliance?

April 3, 2025
virtualAsia, Basing and force posture, Burden sharing, China, Grand strategy

Past Virtual Event: Rethinking U.S. strategy in East Asia: do more bases mean more deterrence?

January 24, 2024

Receive expert foreign policy analysis

Join the hub of realism and restraint

Expert updates and analysis to enhance your understanding of vital U.S. national security issues

Defense Priority Mono Logo

Our mission is to inform citizens, thought leaders, and policymakers of the importance of a strong, dynamic military—used more judiciously to protect America’s narrowly defined national interests—and promote a realistic grand strategy prioritizing restraint, diplomacy, and free trade to ensure U.S. security.

  • About
  • For Media
  • Jobs
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Contact
© 2025 Defense Priorities All Right Reserved