In May 2022, just three months into the Russia-Ukraine War, I wrote a three-part series in which I identified the military strategy that would give Ukraine the best chance of seeking out some sort of tactical success over Russia. It wouldn’t have guaranteed success, I warned, but it was a viable path. As it turned out, Ukraine did virtually none of what I recommended while—ironically—Russia successfully employed several key elements of the path I laid out.
Now, as we approach the two-and-a-half-year mark of the war, and Ukraine is being pushed back on all fronts, I am going to reprise my effort and lay out a realistic but tough path by which Ukraine might yet steal some military success from Russia.
I will warn from the outset that there is no path, however well-resourced, by which Ukraine can inflict an outright military defeat on Russia in the foreseeable future. Russia is too big, too well-resourced, and too well-manned for Ukraine to beat. Yet, if handled deftly, sometimes even tactical defeats by a weaker opponent can be leveraged into strategic success. The following plan represents such an opportunity.
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