Russian forces began attacking Ukrainian port cities and threatened cargo ships entering Ukrainian waters within days of its exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. The deal brokered by Turkey allowed Ukraine to continue grain shipments abroad as the war raged on.
Despite the global impact of Russia’s recent escalations, United States policymakers should remain cautious, and focus on reducing tensions with Russia. Turkey has had success negotiating with Russia previously, and the United States should encourage Turkey to find diplomatic means of easing the burden of Russian aggression.
Since the invasion, Turkey has stood out for engaging diplomatically with Russia more than its NATO allies, particularly on trade. Now, the nation has a larger incentive to reduce tensions: Russian threats of attacks against trade vessels in the Black Sea would violate Turkey’s Montreuax Doctrine. Unlike the United States, the wellbeing of Turkish citizens is directly affected by Black Sea trade and conflict.
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