Three-plus years into the war in Ukraine, much remains uncertain, including when the bloodshed will cease and on what terms. But we can be sure about one thing: although no one took seriously Donald Trump’s boast that he would end the war within 24 hours – perhaps not even Trump himself – it’s now evident that his efforts to stitch together a political settlement have failed. Last weekend’s Russian drone and missile strikes against Ukraine, reportedly among the largest since the full-scale invasion began, show us that the conflict isn’t likely to come to a sudden end.
That’s because Vladimir Putin remains committed to his goal of conquering Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson provinces. So far, he controls virtually all of the first and most of the other three. A deal that gives him what he has now plus a guarantee that Ukraine will remain outside Nato won’t satisfy him. He has said repeatedly that he wants all four of these provinces and a neutral Ukraine, with caps on the number of soldiers and major armaments it can deploy.
Trump’s mistake has been to assume that his self-proclaimed deal-making genius, supposed rapport with Putin and massive leverage over Volodymyr Zelenskyy (the US has provided Ukraine with more weaponry than the other allies combined, though less total aid when humanitarian and other support is included) would together yield a diplomatic success, perhaps one that would even land him a Nobel peace prize.
But with Russia targeting Ukraine, including Kyiv, with 367 drones and missiles over the past few days, this isn’t merely a display of disdain by Putin for any political settlement that falls short of his goals, and a demonstration that he is committed to continuing the fight until he achieves his objectives. It also makes Trump seem weak.
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