The two month-old war between Israel and Hamas has unleashed a torrent of difficult questions. Can Israel destroy Hamas in its entirety? If so, who will take over Gaza? Will Israel and the Palestinian Authority get back to peace talks after the war ends?
While all of these questions are important, the most important is getting buried: Does the United States have the correct force posture in the Middle East? While conventional wisdom suggests a bigger U.S. presence is required due to the gravity of the moment, the opposite is actually the case.
Since the Israel-Hamas war erupted on Oct. 7, the Biden administration has surged approximately 17,000 additional U.S. military personnel into the Middle East, including two carrier strike groups, a Marine Expeditionary Unit and several more fighter jet squadrons. In total, about 45,000 U.S. troops are in the region today, the vast majority stationed on large bases in the Persian Gulf. The build-up since early October is designed partly as a force-protection measure as well as an attempt to deter Iran and its various proxy militias, particularly Hezbollah, from intervening directly in the war.
The strategy appears to have worked well enough to keep the conflict contained to Gaza. Although clashes between Israeli and Hezbollah forces are alarming, they have been confined to within four to five miles of their shared border. Iran has never been particularly interested in intervening, knowing full well that its military is no match for Israel and the United States.
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