The Middle East is no stranger to upheaval, but the recent surprise rebel offensive in Syria against Bashar al-Assad’s regime has sent shockwaves through the region.
The latest developments, while initially appearing as just one more chapter in Syria’s protracted civil war, could have profound consequences far beyond Damascus. By challenging not only the Assad regime but also the interests of Iran and Russia, the rebels’ gains — they just seized most of Aleppo, Syria’s largest city —could reshape the regional balance of power in ways directly affecting the U.S. These shifts, in turn, may create a unique opportunity for Washington to pursue a grand strategy of restraint.
For more than a decade, Syria has been the focal point of an intricate web of alliances and rivalries. Assad, propped up by Iran and Russia, has clung to power through brutal tactics, leveraging his foreign backers’ military and economic support to withstand opposition forces.
However, the latest rebel offensive suggests that this arrangement is no longer as secure as it once seemed. Rebel factions, long fragmented and weakened, have found renewed strength, coordination and perhaps external backing to launch a campaign that threatens Assad’s hold on key territories.
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