“What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun.” These words from Ecclesiastes apply to the geopolitics of the Persian Gulf, which, while appearing on the surface to be new and unfamiliar, are in fact ancient and utterly recognizable.
To the untrained eye, the region appears to be undergoing a massive shakeup. The United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, once allies, are now locked in a bitter competition for regional power and influence. Long-time existential foes, such as Bahrain and the UAE on one side and Israel on the other, have normalized diplomatic relations and increased security cooperation. Saudi Arabia and Qatar have reconciled. Turkey has made significant overtures to Egypt and several Gulf states. China is emerging as an increasingly consequential economic and geopolitical player in the region, and the Iranian-Saudi “cold war” appears to have entered a Chinese-brokered period of detente. And all this while the United States continues to vacillate between its much-heralded “pivot” to the Indo-Pacific and its legacy role as cornerstone balancer in the Persian Gulf region.
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