Wars often go wrong in unexpected ways. Even well-planned operations can be derailed by surprise events, equipment failures, bad weather, or bad luck. But the disaster that followed President Donald Trump’s decision to attack Iran on February 28 was not a surprise. War-gamed and red-teamed dozens of times over decades, the risks of the campaign were well-known and obvious.
Still, the war’s outcome has been worse than the most pessimistic predictions. Three months into what the Trump administration has called an “excursion,” the initial assessment that Operation Epic Fury was a “tactical success but strategic failure” appears too generous. After all, neither strategic nor tactical goals were achieved. The United States did not replace the Iranian regime with new, moderate leaders. It failed to seize Iran’s highly enriched uranium or eliminate Iran’s nuclear program. Worse, most reports suggest Iran has retained much of its military capacity, including access to large portions of its missile and drone stockpiles. Finally, the war has created a new, bedeviling problem. The Strait of Hormuz, once the passageway for 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquified natural gas, remains effectively closed.
No matter how the war ends, the costs of the latest U.S. military adventure in the Middle East will be steep and the geopolitical consequences irreversible. The next generation of U.S. leaders will face a stark reality. The United States, which for decades has made decisions based on what policymakers thought America should do, will be forced to consider what the United States can do. The change will have major implications for the United States, but also for U.S. allies who have come to depend on American security guarantees and for the international community that relies on the United States for provision of global security goods, like freedom of navigation.
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