Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman will make his first visit to Washington this month since 2018. Over the past seven years, the Middle East has transitioned from a period of de-escalation and integration to one of post-October 7 turmoil and uncertainty. All along, though, the Saudis have sought a U.S. security guarantee, something the crown prince will look to secure on this trip to DC.
The de facto Saudi leader will undoubtedly point to the security assurances President Trump provided to Qatar in the aftermath of Israel’s attack in Doha to press Washington for a similar, if not stronger, arrangement for America’s oldest Gulf ally. It remains unclear if the administration will continue to insist on Saudi normalisation with Israel as part of such a deal. Regardless of the agreement’s contours, Trump should avoid making any security guarantees to the Saudis, as well as any other type of pledge that further entangles the United States in the Middle East.
Amid a complex geopolitical environment and mounting domestic challenges, the Trump administration has already devoted excessive attention and resources to the Middle East. From bombing Iran and the Houthis to the significant amount of senior-level bandwidth spent on achieving the Gaza cease-fire—something the administration could have simply forced on Israel by cutting off weapons provisions—and working through the next steps for Israel and the Palestinians, the United States’ focus on the region does not match its strategic significance.
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