Even as Russia bombards Ukraine with what is reportedly the largest drone attack of the war, states along Nato’s northeastern flank are already warning about Moscow’s next military campaign: an attack on the alliance itself. Pointing to signs of new Russian military construction and expanded defence production, officials in Finland and the Baltic states ominously predict that Russia is preparing for a war with Nato and could be ready to strike in as little as five years.
This assessment, however, is overblown and misleading. There is no evidence that Russian President Vladimir Putin is interested in fighting a war with Nato or that even a larger, modernised Russian military force would be able to successfully seize large swathes of Nato territory before being stopped by European defenders, with or without support from the United States. Donald Trump should not let fear-mongering — or accusations from the Kremlin that he is too emotional — disrupt his plans to reduce America’s role in Europe’s security in the near term.
Since 2022, Russia’s military has been single-mindedly focused on its war in Ukraine. Defence production has been dedicated to supplying troops on the front lines, and military personnel have been pulled from their home bases to support combat operations. On Nato’s northeastern flank, this has meant long periods of time with a limited Russian military presence — an aberration from Russia’s typical border posture.
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