Defense Priorities Defense Priorities
  • Policy Topics
    • US-Israel-Iran
    • Ukraine-Russia
    • Western Hemisphere
    • NATO
    • China
    • Syria
  • Analysis
    • Research
    • Q&A
  • Programs
    • Grand Strategy Program
    • Military Analysis Program
    • Asia Program
    • Middle East Program
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Media
  • About
    • Mission & Vision
    • People
    • Jobs
    • Contact
  • Donate
Select Page
Home / Ukraine-Russia / New missiles won’t change Ukraine’s broken war math
Ukraine‑Russia, Europe and Eurasia, Military analysis, Russia, Ukraine

November 21, 2024

New missiles won’t change Ukraine’s broken war math

By Jennifer Kavanagh

When U.S. President Joe Biden greenlit Ukraine’s use of longer-range, U.S.-provided missiles known as ATACMS to strike targets deep inside Russia this week, he crossed what Russia has deemed a red line. The decision came after months of pressure from Kyiv, European allies, and Ukraine-supporting members of the U.S. Congress who blamed Biden’s foot-dragging for Ukraine’s cascading losses.

Biden’s gambit will fail for the same reason his broader Ukraine policy has: It ignores the conflict’s basic math. Given limits on U.S. stockpiles and defense production and Ukraine’s manpower constraints—all readily apparent from the war’s outset—there has never been a sustainable way for Washington to fuel its partner to total victory over Russia.

Read at Foreign Policy

Author

Jennifer
Kavanagh

Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis

Defense Priorities

More on Europe

In the mediaNATO, Burden sharing, Europe and Eurasia

Why and How Europeans Must Prepare for U.S. Retrenchment

Featuring Justin Logan

May 28, 2026

Op-edEurope and Eurasia, NATO

Europe’s French nuclear shield?

By Daniel DePetris

May 7, 2026

Op-edNATO, Europe and Eurasia

Trump’s right to take troops out of Germany. Now see where they go.

By Jennifer Kavanagh

May 6, 2026

Op-edUkraine‑Russia, Drones, Europe and Eurasia, Russia, Ukraine

Drone Dominance Isn’t the Vital Lesson of Ukraine

By Gil Barndollar

May 5, 2026

Op-edNATO, Alliances, Europe and Eurasia

Why Donald Trump Doesn’t Want European Strategic Autonomy

By Thomas P. Cavanna

May 5, 2026

In the mediaNATO, Europe and Eurasia

Trump’s threat to pull troops out of Germany crashes into reality

Featuring Jennifer Kavanagh

April 30, 2026

Events on Ukraine-Russia

See All Events
virtualUkraine‑Russia, Air power, Diplomacy, Drones, Europe and Eurasia, Land power, Military analysis, Russia, Ukraine

Ukraine’s critical choice: Pursue peace or fight on

April 16, 2025
virtualUkraine‑Russia, Europe and Eurasia, Russia, Ukraine

Trump and Ukraine: Prolonging or ending the war

December 13, 2024
virtualNATO, Alliances, Europe and Eurasia, Russia, Ukraine, Ukraine‑Russia

A ‘bridge’ to NATO or false hope for Ukraine?

July 12, 2024

Receive expert foreign policy analysis

Join the hub of realism and restraint

Expert updates and analysis to enhance your understanding of vital U.S. national security issues

Defense Priority Mono Logo

Our mission is to inform citizens, thought leaders, and policymakers of the importance of a strong, dynamic military—used more judiciously to protect America’s narrowly defined national interests—and promote a realistic grand strategy prioritizing restraint, diplomacy, and free trade to ensure U.S. security.

  • Research
  • Experts
  • About
  • For Media
  • Jobs
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Contact
© 2026 Defense Priorities Foundation. All rights reserved.