Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has had a remarkably successful few months. The veteran politician, whose political future was hanging by a thread after the October 7, 2023 attacks by Hamas, is on the rebound.
After nearly 15 months of war in Gaza, which has resulted in 45,000 deaths and mass displacement throughout the enclave Hamas is reportedly easing its hardline negotiating position in cease-fire talks. Hezbollah is at its weakest point, courtesy of a months-long Israeli military offensive in south Lebanon (the two sides signed a cease-fire deal in late November). Bashar Assad, the murderous dictator that turned Syria into an Iranian outpost, is now in exile. And Iran, its regional proxies still licking its wounds, looks more like a paper tiger than an aspiring regional hegemon.
Times could get even better for Netanyahu when Donald Trump returns to the White House this January. That’s at least the widespread opinion of many commentators, some of whom have argued that Trump’s upcoming second term could provide Netanyahu with the leeway he needs to accomplish his wider goals in the Middle East.
This opinion is not entirely without merit; Trump’s first term was a godsend to Netanyahu in more ways than one. In 2017, Trump officially recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, a long-standing request from successive Israeli governments. He also recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights two years later. The Trump administration wasn’t shy about cutting aid to the Palestinians, nor was it perturbed with shutting down the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s (PLO) offices in Washington, D.C.
However, past is not necessarily prologue. This is particularly the case with Trump, who doesn’t take kindly to fools, is inherently mercurial, is always searching for big deals on the international stage and is highly sensitive to being slighted.
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