The so-called “coalition of the willing” is designed to accomplish a noble objective: ensure that the defences of a postwar Ukraine are so strong that Russian President Vladimir Putin, or any Russian leader who comes after him, will be deterred from launching another invasion (Opinion, September 9). The concept is not only sound from a moral perspective but instrumental to a potential peace deal; indeed it’s difficult to believe the Ukrainians would sign up to any agreement with Russia if it left them vulnerable to another attack. Yet as the U.S. and its European allies continue to negotiate which countries will contribute what to this resource-intensive endeavour, a more fundamental question must be asked: can the collective west actually deter Putin from another unjustified war of choice in Ukraine?
At bottom, the answer comes down to the age-old notion of credibility. If Russia believes the west is so sufficiently invested in Ukraine’s security that it’s willing to deploy its own troops and military hardware to serve as a sort of tripwire, then decision makers in the Kremlin would think twice before greenlighting more aggression. But unfortunately for Ukraine, this isn’t the case.
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