At this point, it’s easier to list the number of senior Iranian officials who have been killed in Operation Epic Fury than to figure out who is running the government in Tehran. The old guard that ruled the country for the last three decades is now effectively neutralised—Ali Larijani, the head of the supreme leader’s security office, is the latest to join those ranks. Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, is now in charge, but he has never held an official government position.
Donald Trump is obviously crowing about these killings as an example of the war’s success. On a tactical level, he’s not wrong: killing your adversary’s commanders and senior officials during wartime is as old as war itself. The purpose is straightforward: cause chaos in the ranks, disrupt the enemy’s command-and-control, and send a message to the replacements that they could meet the same fate. Israeli defence officials are confident that if they take out enough of the senior leadership, the country’s command structure will collapse. Weaken the regime, the argument goes, and Iranians will begin protesting in the streets by the millions. So why, with so many leaders taken out, is this yet to pay off?
The basis for this plan was that the regime would become more confused and hardliners would be pushed out in favour of those willing to compromise. Instead, the US and Israeli campaign against the Iranian leadership is producing a more hardened core with an even deeper attachment to the status quo. One only needs to look as far as the regime’s war strategy. It will continue to bottle up the Strait of Hormuz, unleash missile and drone attacks against Gulf energy facilities, and prosecute the war until Trump concludes the economic pain is simply too high.
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