Donald Trump begins his second stint in the White House with big plans and a world that looks quite different from the one he dealt with during his first term. He will inherit a cornucopia of foreign policy problems and international crises left over from the previous administration.
The 15-month long war in Gaza may be paused for the time being, but the safe bet is to put your money on the fighting resuming after the first six-week phase is over. Trump may have big dreams about terminating the three year-old war in Ukraine, but the president’s national security team is still very much in the process of figuring out a diplomatic formula that would bring Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. Trump, who in his January 20 inaugural address said he wanted to be known as a “peacemaker,” will also attempt to strike a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia, an ambition that will be moot if the Gaza ceasefire doesn’t survive.
There is one problem, however, that remains similar to those of past U.S. administrations: Iran’s nuclear program.
Unfortunately for Trump, the Iranian nuclear issue is as confounding as it has ever been. The International Atomic Energy Agency reported in November that Iran’s total enriched uranium stockpile is now more than 6,600 kg, approximately 22 times what Tehran would have been permitted under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). In December, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi assessed that Iran was enriching 5-7 kg of 60 percent enriched uranium a month, a short technical step away from the 90 percent required for bomb fuel. The Iranians have installed more centrifuges of higher quality and are churning out more uranium at a higher level, both as a pressure tactic against Washington and as a way to bag more leverage in the event nuclear talks recommence. The now former Secretary of State Antony Blinken put it bluntly over the summer: “Where we are now is not in a good place.”
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