China and the United States are closer than they’ve ever been to a war over Taiwan.
A dangerous feedback loop has set in over the past decade: Taiwanese defiance toward China provokes aggressive bluster from Beijing, leading to stronger rhetorical support for Taiwan in Washington. The self-reinforcing pattern repeats itself. Each time, it moves Taiwan more to the center of the U.S.-China relationship, increases the risk of conflict and provokes fretful analysis over what to do about this seemingly intractable situation.
This arc was not preordained. Nor is it immutable, and in Donald Trump, the United States has a norm-defying president uniquely positioned to reverse it.
The Trump administration’s best bet for avoiding war would be to boldly seek a fresh deal with China, restoring equilibrium across the Taiwan Strait by offering to dial back U.S. defense buildups in the region and putting Taiwan on notice that American military backup is neither assured nor boundless.
If that seems deceptively simple and logical, it’s because it’s worked before, to everyone’s benefit.
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