On Sunday, as Moscow and Kyiv prepared for a second round of meetings in Istanbul, Ukraine used a barrage of drones to target Russia’s fleet of strategic bombers at their home bases deep inside Russian territory. The operation, planned for over a year, is Kyiv’s latest high-risk attempt to shift the trajectory of a war that is increasingly moving in Moscow’s favour. But while it appears spectacular at first glance, the strike will not help Ukraine’s battlefield position or improve its prospects in its three-year war against Russia. Instead, it is likely to hurt Ukraine strategically and operationally, hardening Russian resolve, increasing the risk of escalation, and placing remaining military support from the Trump administration under threat.
Ukraine’s “Operation Spiderweb” carried a high shock value, not only for its creativity but also for the targets chosen and the resulting visuals of Russian aircraft aflame. Ukrainian leaders were quick to celebrate. Volodymyr Zelensky called it a “brilliant result”, proclaiming that “we are doing everything to make Russia feel the need to end this war.”
Any Ukrainian victory will be Pyrrhic, however. The loss of some of its strategic long-range bombers, if confirmed, would undoubtedly be a blow to Russia’s military force and will be especially concerning to Moscow given the role the aircraft play in the country’s nuclear deterrent. But the costs imposed by Ukraine’s attack will not prevent Russia from continuing its war of attrition on Ukraine’s eastern front, or force it to back off its campaign of drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities.
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