The U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has left things worse than they were a month ago, when Tehran seemed ready to cut a conciliatory deal with Washington over its nuclear programme. Trump, refusing to take “yes” for an answer, instead decided to launch a war that shows no signs of winding down soon, despite the President’s rhetoric. The downing of two U.S. fighter jets over Iran is only the latest example of the unnecessary risk to American lives and the dangers of further escalation presented by this self-destructive conflict.
The possibility of U.S. personnel being taken hostage or further casualties among search-and-rescue operators is just one of the many looming scenarios in which Trump may feel compelled to deepen U.S. involvement in Iran. While the U.S. and Israel have degraded Tehran’s missile, naval, and command capabilities with characteristic skill, these tactical successes have put the political goals of the war even further out of reach.
Rather than installing a more pliant regime, the U.S. has hardened the one it sought to weaken. While Washington framed its actions as preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons—despite Tehran’s longstanding reluctance to do so—the result may be the opposite: Iran now has stronger incentives to pursue a nuclear deterrent as the only reliable guarantee of regime survival.
Instead of proving its ability to defend its Middle Eastern partners, the U.S. has exposed them to levels of risk that would have seemed implausible just weeks ago. Far from weakening China and Russia by wearing down their Iranian ally, Washington is diverting forces from Asia and Europe, bleeding resources and further straining its defence industrial base—all while its rivals look on from the sidelines. Even the degradation of Iran’s military may prove both pyrrhic and short-lived, as its capabilities can be rebuilt in short order.
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