Is it possible to broker a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine? There have been doubters and skeptics on this question from the moment the first round of diplomacy occurred a few weeks after Moscow’s February 2022 invasion. The general consensus in Washington’s think tank circuit and Europe’s halls of power is that Russian President Vladimir Putin is simply too thick-headed, greedy, and intransigent to talk to. The only figure of major consequence who thought a settlement could be achieved was Donald Trump—and even his optimism, on the campaign trail and then in office, was predicated less on the ability of the combatants to strike an honorable peace and more on his supposed magical powers of persuasion.
But even President Trump is getting discouraged these days. Objectively speaking, the Trump administration’s first three months of shuttle diplomacy has been a wash. This hasn’t been for a lack of trying. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, peace envoy Steve Witkoff, and Ukraine envoy Keith Kellogg have done an extensive amount of traveling during this time—Witkoff has reportedly met with Putin four times. Meanwhile, Trump has browbeaten Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky into participating in the U.S.-mediated process (something Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, refused to do) and the administration has even put a draft peace deal on the table for discussion. Trump has taken a lot of heat for his diplomacy-first approach, particularly from those perfectly comfortable with having Zelensky dictate U.S. policy on the war.
But for those of us who supported diplomacy from the start, we must admit that the trend line isn’t good. Sure, this week Ukrainian and Russian officials met in Turkey for the first time in more than three years at Trump’s urging. Yes, this in and of itself is an accomplishment of sorts. But getting to this meeting was riddled with so much gamesmanship by the two sides, with Zelensky daring Putin to fly to Turkey and Putin responding by sending two lower-level Russian negotiators instead, that one wonders if either leader is capable of going beyond histrionics. As Rubio said before the May 16 session took place, the odds of success were slim: “I don’t think anything productive is actually going to happen from this point forward, until [Trump and Putin] engage in a very frank and direct conversation, which I know President Trump is willing to do.”
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