On board Air Force One on Sunday, U.S. President Donald J. Trump confirmed that he’s spoken to Russian President Vladimir Putin about the Russia-Ukraine War and wants to “end this damn thing.”
Trump has thus far remained coy about the contents of those conversations and has yet to reveal how he plans to end the war. A sober analysis of the battlefield in Ukraine, the diplomatic landscape, and financial conditions affecting all sides reveals Trump’s options for producing a “good” outcome are quite limited.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is not waiting to find out what Trump plans, and is trying to make his own case for war termination conditions. Last Friday he announced he was ready to “do a deal” with Trump on essentially paying the United States to press Putin for an outcome desirable to Kyiv, by offering to let the United States mine reportedly trillions of dollars of rare earth minerals.
Zelensky has floated everything from “temporary” surrender of sovereignty of the eastern part of Ukraine, immediate NATO membership for the rump Ukraine, and – most eye-opening last week – a request to be given nuclear weapons. He’s also requested 200,000 “peacekeepers” to patrol the border between Ukraine and Russia after a deal is struck.
Trump’s envoy to solve the Russia-Ukraine War, retired Gen. Kieth Kellogg, will be at the Munich Security Conference later this week, and is expected to directly talk with Zelensky on what Trump is willing to do to end the war. In public, Kellogg has suggested a ceasefire along the current line of contact, a Korea-style demilitarized zone separating the two sides, and a version of armed neutrality for Ukraine – but, as other Trump officials have indicated, no NATO membership, now or later.
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