As of Saturday evening, June 21, Donald Trump is now a wartime president. This is a far cry from how Trump began his presidency five months ago, with promises to wind down existing conflicts and refrain from starting new ones. But despite his fondness for calling himself a peacemaker, Trump can no longer persist with this charade. For better or worse, he has taken the United States to war with Iran.
To be sure, Trump has expressed hope that Iran will be restrained in its response to U.S. airstrikes against three key nuclear sites. Perhaps he will get his way. After all, the president ordered the assassination of the top Iranian general Qasem Soleimani in January 2020 without provoking a massive retaliation.
The case for Iran exercising restraint is simple. America has what scholars of International Relations call “escalation dominance.” This means that Iran stands to lose more than it can gain by climbing rungs on the escalation ladder. Consequently, Iran would be irrational to launch a significant counterattack against U.S. forces in the Persian Gulf. Fighting back would only make things worse.
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