Defense Priorities Defense Priorities
  • Policy Topics
    • Ukraine-Russia
    • Israel-Hamas
    • NATO
    • China
    • Syria
    • North Korea
  • Research
    • Briefs
    • Explainers
    • Reports
  • Programs
    • Grand Strategy Program
    • Military Analysis Program
    • Asia Program
    • Middle East Program
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Media
  • About
    • Mission & Vision
    • People
    • Jobs
    • Contact
  • Donate
Select Page
Home / China / China tariffs deal could backfire on Trump
China, Air power, Asia, Balance of power, Global posture, Land power, Naval power, Taiwan

May 12, 2025

China tariffs deal could backfire on Trump

By Jennifer Kavanagh

After two days of talks, the US and China have reportedly reached a deal to substantially lower tariffs for the next 90 days. Beijing will reduce duties on US imports from 125% to 10%, while tariffs on Chinese goods entering America will be cut from 145% to 30%.

Any deal to reduce tariffs on Chinese imports will naturally please American consumers, not to mention businesses fearful of sharp price increases and empty store shelves. But this deal will be equally important for the opportunity it creates to stabilise the security relationship between the two rival powers. With tensions rising in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and waters around Japan, the Trump administration should use the opening created by the successful Geneva summit to press forward on what might be its most important task: preventing a war between the United States and China.

When Donald Trump returned to the White House in January, those hoping for an improvement in Sino-American security ties were optimistic. Trump had a good rapport with Chinese President Xi Jinping during his first term, and seemed interested in forging mutually beneficial deals with Beijing in his second term — even if they broke from US foreign policy convention. The American President billed himself as a “peacemaker” and promised to keep the country out of foreign wars, including in Asia. Though asked multiple times, Trump refused to follow former president Joe Biden in committing US military support to Taiwan if the island were attacked by China.

The “Liberation Day” tariffs placed on China quickly dampened this optimism. As the two countries spiralled into tit-for-tat tariff increases, the appetite for bilateral discussion around regional security concerns shrank. The security implications of the trade war were severe, despite being overshadowed by the economic fallout. Most importantly, worsening economic relations between the rival nations risked spillover into the military domain, while simultaneously cutting off the communication channels that might prevent a regional crisis from escalating into a full-blown conflict.

Read at UnHerd

Author

Jennifer
Kavanagh

Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis

Defense Priorities

More on Asia

op-edChina, Asia, Taiwan

Pete Hegseth’s Taiwan speech risks igniting conflict with China

By Lyle Goldstein

June 2, 2025

op-edChina, Asia, Taiwan

The US must make hard choices on national security

By Lyle Goldstein

May 27, 2025

op-edChina, Asia, Deterrence, Taiwan

Asia is getting shortchanged as the US keeps its focus elsewhere

By Daniel DePetris

May 27, 2025

op-edGrand strategy, China, Europe and Eurasia, Russia

Reverse Kissinger? No, Double Kissinger

By Lyle Goldstein

May 25, 2025

In the mediaChina, Asia, Cyber

How China’s military might use anti-AI tactics on the battlefields of the future

Featuring Lyle Goldstein

May 21, 2025

In the mediaChina, Asia, Grand strategy

Chinese weapons get rare battle test in India-Pakistan fighting

Featuring Jennifer Kavanagh

May 20, 2025

Events on China

See All Events
virtualChina, Alliances, Balance of power, Diplomacy, Grand strategy, Great power competition, Middle East

Virtual: U.S.-China competition and the value of Middle East influence

June 10, 2025
virtualChina, Alliances, Balance of power, Diplomacy, Grand strategy, Russia

Past Virtual Event: China-Russia: Cooperation or a no-limits alliance?

April 3, 2025
virtualAsia, Basing and force posture, Burden sharing, China, Grand strategy

Past Virtual Event: Rethinking U.S. strategy in East Asia: do more bases mean more deterrence?

January 24, 2024

Receive expert foreign policy analysis

Join the hub of realism and restraint

Expert updates and analysis to enhance your understanding of vital U.S. national security issues

Defense Priority Mono Logo

Our mission is to inform citizens, thought leaders, and policymakers of the importance of a strong, dynamic military—used more judiciously to protect America’s narrowly defined national interests—and promote a realistic grand strategy prioritizing restraint, diplomacy, and free trade to ensure U.S. security.

  • About
  • For Media
  • Jobs
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms and Conditions
  • Contact
© 2025 Defense Priorities All Right Reserved