President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s blowup in the Oval Office was the end of what should have been an obvious chain of events. The press has reported for the past two months on what increasingly dire relations between the Trump and Zelensky administrations. Trump had been offended by a series of Zelensky’s actions, from misleading his team on his thoughts regarding the minerals deal to Zelensky’s criticism of Trump “living in a disinformation space.”
But beyond those personal differences, it also is the result of a truth which had been boiling up since as early as the Biden administration: America’s and Ukraine’s national interests simply no longer align.
Consider Ukraine’s national interests. While the period of maximum peril—when Russian tanks were miles from Kyiv—is long past, Russia, a significantly larger and more powerful country, still has managed to capture about 20 percent of Ukraine’s territory. This has included the entirety of the Azov Coast, effectively turning the Azov Sea into a Russian lake. While Ukraine has (thanks to Western weaponry and courageous soldiers) managed to hold its own, they are running out of troops and have been for some time. If the Russo-Ukrainian War becomes a war of attrition, it will end with Russia conquering more territory than it currently possesses.
Therefore, Ukraine’s national interest is clear: get as much support as possible to defend itself from Russia and join NATO. Barring either of those, get a ceasefire backed with American and European security guarantees. While the Zelensky administration has been vague as to what those security guarantees would mean, it clearly is hoping that America would agree to take some sort of military action if Russia were to break a future ceasefire.
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