When (and if) US relations with Ukraine get back on track, the initial step to cooperation will likely be signing the minerals deal that was shelved after the recent blowup at the White House. The deal has been widely reported, but not given much critical attention given the dominant focus of public debates about negotiating an end to the Russia-Ukraine War. That’s not a good thing.
The allure of accessing rare earth minerals has been a dangerous strategic trap for great powers, including the United States in recent decades. Minerals were one reason US troops kept fighting in Afghanistan after doing so no longer made strategic sense. Though the ISIS Caliphate is gone, US troops are still in Syria today to control its oil fields (a decision Trump made in 2019). Finally, in Africa, today, Russia faces the dangers of overstretch as it tries to protect access to African minerals — nearly 100 Russian soldiers have died in Mali while trying to protect mines since last summer.
Helping Ukraine use its natural resources to rebuild is a good idea. Still, if Trump’s not careful, his obsession with Ukrainian minerals could lead to outcomes at odds with US national interests.
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