Don’t take it from me. Jennifer Kavanagh, a senior military analyst at Defense Priorities, wrote this week, “The pendulum is likely to swing back in Moscow’s favor soon enough.”
To be sure, Ukraine has found some dramatic success striking inside Russia. But, Kavanagh writes, Russia’s firepower superiority enables Moscow to climb higher than Kiev up the escalation ladder—hence the rather dire recent headlines—and its manpower advantage is what matters in the attritional war on the ground. Indeed, Ukraine’s losing strategically important territory even now.
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