The back-and-forth over demands and compensation has further tarnished hope for a new deal to be agreed upon.
Rosemary Kelanic, director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities, tells TIME that these demands are the equivalent of “Iran shooting [for] the moon.”
“They’re going big and asking for everything they could possibly want. I don’t expect that they think they’re going to get all of these demands,” she says.
Kelanic reasons that Iranian leadership may be factoring in Trump’s domestic situation regarding the upcoming November midterms, making them all the more aware of the leverage they have as polls show Americans as feeling uneasy over the conflict and its financial ramifications.
Not to mention the fact lawmakers have criticized the resumption of hostilities, and some Republican Senators have joined Democrats in attempts to limit Trump’s ability to continue the Iran war without congressional authorization.
Iran understands its “power to coerce Trump is higher before the midterms than it is after the midterms,” says Kelanic. “They’re trying to maximize their benefit in the short term, and in a way that it’s still plausible that Trump could get some benefit from making a deal with them in terms of oil prices going down and staying low.”
Kelanic suggests that by going to Trump with some unattainable demands, Iran may be hoping to land some of their more “achievable” ones.
“In terms of reparations [compensation], that’s almost impossible. Sanctions lifting that’s a possibility. Unfreezing assets, that’s a possibility,” she says, taking note of Tehran’s six demands.
Kelanic suggests the stalemate, of sorts, remains when it comes to the waterway.
“Iran can’t completely close the Strait of Hormuz, but the U.S. can’t completely open it,” she tells TIME. “The U.S. is using its military power to get some oil through, but not all of the oil to replace what was lost through the Strait.”
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