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Home / US-Israel-Iran / One Big Reason Iran Thinks It Has the Advantage
US‑Israel‑Iran, Iran, Middle East

May 1, 2026

One Big Reason Iran Thinks It Has the Advantage

These numbers are “based on incomplete data and estimates” and should be taken with caution, noted Jennifer Kavanagh, a military analyst at Defense Priorities, in an interview with The American Conservative. But they do reflect that the U.S. “has burned through a lot of its munitions stockpile,” she said.

The CSIS report says that, “under any plausible scenario,” the U.S. “has enough missiles to continue fighting this war.” The reason why: Though critical munitions have been depleted, there is still a large inventory of cheaper munitions. Kavanagh explained that the most “exquisite weapons” that are being depleted “will be less in demand if the war resumes, given the degradation of Iran’s military capabilities.”

However, the real concern, Kavanagh explained, “is for future crises and the U.S. ability to respond in case there are threats that (unlike Iran) really do affect U.S. interests.” Internal Department of Defense estimates tell the story of inventories so depleted that the White House should think twice about restarting the war on Iran, even if the U.S. could technically sustain that war for a long while.

Read at The American Conservative

Featuring

Jennifer
Kavanagh

Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis

Defense Priorities

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