Rosemary Kelanic, director of Middle East engagement at Defense Priorities, told Newsweek that Israel may have suggested it would be a short operation, but there are parallels with the Gaza invasion and the prospect of mission creep.
She said following the October 7 attacks by Hamas, Israel said it would go into northern Gaza to clear out Hamas, “then they went further into Gaza and they’re still there.”
Early reports suggest Israel has informed the United States it is going to be a limited incursion. “But are they really going to just go in to create a buffer in the South, or are they potentially open to or even planning on going further?” she said.
“If their objective is that they want to prevent an October 7-style attack from Hezbollah in Lebanon, then they could probably do that by going 20 miles or so up to the Litani River and clearing out Hezbollah and just occupying it for some period of time,” she said.
“That could potentially work,” she said and could prevent a paramilitary-style invasion of Israel from the north.
However, she said if the goal is really to get displaced Israelis from the north back into their homes, which is what the government of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said, Hezbollah rockets will still be a threat.
“The rocket problem is going to extend them a lot further than the Litani River because Hezbollah has a huge arsenal of short-range, medium-range and long-range vessels,” she said.
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