From the moment Israel and Iran agreed to a U.S.-imposed ceasefire in June, ending a 12-day air war that the United States itself participated in, the Iranian nuclear issue has taken the form of one long, never-ending soap opera.
As far as we can tell, Iran’s 400-kilogram stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains buried somewhere underneath the rubble of Fordow and Natanz, the country’s two major uranium enrichment facilities, which were heavily damaged by U.S. airstrikes. President Donald Trump continues to insist that Iran’s nuclear program is “obliterated.” And the Iranians remain caught between a state of defiance and resignation, with hardliners and moderates unsure of whether to proactively push for another round of talks or to bunker down in preparation for more war.
The story took yet another dramatic turn this week. On Nov. 20, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors censured Iran for noncompliance and demanded the country begin implementing a verification deal that Tehran signed with the agency in September. That protocol was supposed to result in the reentry of IAEA monitors into the country, the resumption of inspections in Iran’s major nuclear facilities, and a report, issued by the Iranian government, about the status and location of its remaining enrichment stocks.
Iran, however, responded to the IAEA’s latest resolution as it has in the past: by cutting off cooperation. The Iranians wasted no time after the IAEA’s censure. The September deal, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said, is now null and void. All of this is coming at a time when the Iranians, still reeling from the significant devastation their defenses took in June, are trying to rebuild their missile capability—according to Israeli authorities, one-third of Tehran’s missiles were either used or destroyed during the 12-day war in June—and churning on with work at another underground nuclear facility at Pickaxe Mountain.
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