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NATO or neutrality: Assessing security guarantees for Ukraine

  • https://defp.org/events/nato-or-neutrality (map)

As Ukraine's offensive continues and NATO's annual summit approaches, an array of European leaders and prominent pundits are promoting NATO membership for Ukraine, either now or once the war ends. Others propose lesser forms of security guarantees for Ukraine, with the United States or other states potentially promising protection on a bilateral basis. The question of whether NATO or the United States alone should extend security guarantees to Ukraine has become vital.

Our panelists will debate the benefits and risks associated with offering Ukraine security guarantees. Supporters argue that such guarantees would deter future Russian aggression and compel Russia to engage in constructive negotiations. Opponents meanwhile contend that previous offers of NATO membership played a role in provoking the initial Russian invasion, that guarantees would not be credible, and that they would undermine U.S. security for no good reason.