The puzzle of why the United States chose to attack Iran in February of this year will provide ample material for historians to analyze for years to come. Multiple, often confusing rationales for the war were proffered at the time, and no compelling explanation has followed. Especially given that Iran’s nuclear program had already been smashed apart in Operation Midnight Hammer eight months prior, it simply made little sense for the United States and Israeli militaries to begin a new bombardment.
Of course, this has not stopped America’s war party from trying to justify the bombings in the meantime. It suits them to contrive a rationale for the attack, not least so they can sell a renewed conflict to the U.S. public if and when negotiations between Washington and Tehran finally break down entirely.
One of the most vexing post hoc rationalizations for the war is that it has contributed, or will contribute, to deterrence in East Asia. From this view, China will be dissuaded from invading Taiwan or attacking a US treaty ally in the Western Pacific now that it has seen the United States take decisive military action against another supposed aggressor, Iran.
In fact, the most ardent war hawks believe that Washington has not yet gone far enough in its efforts to deter China by reducing parts of Iran to rubble. Former national security adviser John Bolton, for example, recently wrote that “flattening Tehran’s regime would be the clearest signal to Beijing that it should not risk military adventurism.” Bolton made this extraordinary claim in August, more than five months after the start of hostilities with Iran, suggesting that he still hopes that the so far limited Iran War might yet metastasize into a full-blown war of regime change in Tehran.
Bolton is wrong. Nothing the United States has done, or could do, militarily in the Persian Gulf should be construed as strengthening deterrence in other regions of the world, especially not East Asia. If anything, the war with Iran has undermined America’s capacity to deter adversaries and reassure allies the world over.
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