Allies are likely to respond to the U.S.’s scaled-back involvement by bolstering their own military capacity, increasing defense spending, and forming new partnerships with neighbors, said Jennifer Kavanagh, senior fellow and director of military analysis at Defense Priorities.
Defense autonomy would bring foreign policy independence and an end to the insecurity that comes with outsourcing national defense to a foreign power, she said.
“Allies will become more self-sufficient over time, and they will need the United States less,” she added, pointing to rising defense budgets and deepening cooperation among Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Australia.
For Washington, the benefits of a reduced footprint in Asia would “far outweigh” the loss of influence, Kavanagh said, as a smaller defense burden means more money for domestic priorities and a reduced risk of major war, including with China.
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