Vice President JD Vance and hundreds of expert-level U.S. officials arrived in Islamabad last weekend with a sliver of hope that a deal to end the nearly seven-week war in Iran could be hammered out. By the time they left on Sunday after 21 hours of negotiations, that hope had deflated. Vance, who never wanted the United States to wage a preventive war against Iran, announced that the two sides were still unable to reach an agreement.
His boss, President Donald Trump, wasted little time upping the ante. Even before the U.S. delegation returned to Washington, Trump had declared a blockade of Iranian ports in the Strait of Hormuz. Any ships coming or going to Iran would be prevented from doing so, and the U.S. Navy would have the power to interdict vessels that refused to comply. By Monday morning, the blockade was in effect.
As it stands, diplomacy with Iran is at a bit of a stalemate. Despite Vance departing Pakistan empty-handed, the mediators are still working to keep open channels of communication between the United States and Iran. Both sides will continue to submit messages and proposals. Still, with U.S. terms virtually unchanged since the war began last month—no Iranian enrichment, the destruction of Iran’s major nuclear facilities, the elimination of Iran’s uranium stockpile and a full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz—one can’t help but be pessimistic about the prospects of successful diplomacy.
While it’s tempting to get sucked into the day-to-day minutia of the U.S.-Iran talks, last weekend’s negotiations did not occur in a vacuum. Other U.S. adversaries are paying attention to the talks and evaluating how the Trump administration is conducting itself. Among their takeaways, one stands above all others: If you don’t have your own cards to play, the U.S. will poke, prod and aim for outright capitulation.
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