Depending on who you ask, the U.S. war against Iran is either designed to knee-cap the country’s military capability or pave the way for the Iranian people to take over their own government. President Trump, whose presidential campaigns promised to end the kinds of regime-change wars that have tied down U.S. resources in the past, alternates between overthrowing the mullahs in Tehran and coercing what’s left of the Iranian leadership back to the negotiating table on his terms.
What we know for sure is that the Middle East is now in a regional war with no end in sight.
When Trump ordered the bombing of Iran’s three main nuclear facilities in June, the objective was clear and limited: degrade its ability to enrich uranium and lengthen the time Tehran needed to acquire a nuclear weapon. Today’s operations are far more comprehensive, with the target set encompassing everything from Iran’s political leadership and ballistic missile sites to air defense systems and the Iranian navy. Trump has refused to rule out U.S. troops on the ground and has said operations could last four to five weeks. The U.S. and Israel struck more than 2,000 targets in Iran during the first day of the mission. The death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s top decision-maker for the last 37 years, in a joint U.S.-Israeli strike reveals the extent to which both states are committed to grinding Iran down until one of two things happens: The regime surrenders to Trump’s demands or falls apart completely.
The Iranians, however, have some cards to play. While Tehran can’t compete with the United States or Israel in conventional terms, it has the ability to cause a degree of chaos in the region that could compel other states to lobby Trump to cut the war short.
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