“The U.S. often thinks about sanctions effectiveness the wrong way,” Rosemary Kelanic, Director of the Middle East Program at Defense Priorities, tells The Cipher Brief. “Effectiveness should be measured in terms of whether sanctions could achieve the desired policy outcomes, not just whether they impose costs.”
“Historically speaking, sanctions sometimes convince countries to give in on issues of minor importance, but they practically never compel countries to abandon vital national interests,” Kelanic continued. “For Russia, Ukraine is important enough to fight a long, slogging war over.”
Kelanic also pointed out that the global oil system is more shock-absorbent than many assume. “There’s plenty of oil that can cushion the market if any supply disruptions occur,” she explained. That flexibility allows it to sustain pressure for longer without triggering global price spikes.
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