On the heels of the first face-to-face talks between Russia and Ukraine in over three years, US President Donald Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin will speak over the phone later today. “Hopefully it will be a productive day, a ceasefire will take place, and this very violent war […] will end,” Trump wrote on Truth Social at the weekend.
However, an immediate ceasefire, while desirable, is an unlikely outcome, and represents the wrong goal for today’s phone call. Instead, Trump should focus his time with Putin on identifying steps the two leaders can take to ensure that talks between Moscow and Kyiv continue. He should avoid threats of coercion and confirm US willingness to assist in negotiations when the time is right, while securing from Putin a commitment to keep Russia’s direct communication with Ukraine open. Though this result would be less triumphant than Trump might prefer, the approach is more likely to set a course towards a sustainable peace.
Soon after taking office, Trump and his advisers seemed open to a “talking while fighting” model that would allow progress towards peace even as the war between Russia and Ukraine continued. Since March, however, he has joined European allies and Ukraine itself in calling for an unconditional ceasefire before peace talks proceed. This is a mistake.
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