At a time when its forces continue to lose ground in the east and its capital city is bombarded with Russian attack drones on a near-daily basis, the last thing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy needed was another thing to worry about. But that’s precisely what he got last Tuesday, when former President Donald Trump wiped the floor with Vice President Kamala Harris to reclaim the presidency. Ukrainian officials are now asking the inevitable question: How will Trump manage the war in Ukraine?
The conventional wisdom is that Trump, fresh off a resounding victory, will throw Ukraine under the bus by pressuring Kyiv to sign a settlement that will hand over a fifth of its territory to the Russians and de jure legitimize Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war of aggression. Indeed, this was a big talking point for Harris throughout the campaign. Many foreign policy experts in Washington, D.C., have frequently raised concerns about Trump’s personal infatuation with Putin clouding his judgment. At times, Trump’s own words appeared to back this up; he has suggested that Zelenskyy is not only taking U.S. military support for granted but also started the war in the first place.
Yet it’s important to state one fundamental fact up front: None of us know what Trump has in mind for the war in Ukraine. This will cause scowls and sighs among Beltway elites who think they can read Trump’s mind. But all we really have are words from the president-elect who, frankly, is prone to changing his mind depending on the situation he confronts at any given time and the advisers who happen to be sitting in the room.
Besides insisting that he could resolve the nearly three-year-old war in a day, none of us know what Trump’s plans are. He has never talked about the war in great depth, let alone put forth a concrete proposal with specifics. Of course, you wouldn’t expect Trump to do such a thing anyway; it would serve little benefit during an election that largely centered on domestic policy issues like inflation and the state of American democracy. The other reason, though, is because Trump doesn’t want to box himself in before he even begins talking with the main players.
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