FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
December 30, 2025
Contact: press@defensepriorities.org
WASHINGTON, DC—China has launched a large-scale military exercise encircling Taiwan. Lyle Goldstein, Director of the Asia Program at Defense Priorities and author of a new series of reports on a potential Chinese assault on Taiwan, issued the following statement in response:
“China has launched a new set of intensive military exercises around Taiwan—the first since April. It’s part of a pattern of military coercion that started in August 2022, when then U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island against the wishes of the White House. The ongoing military exercises feature sorties by over 100 Chinese aircraft and dozens of warships that are regularly crossing the sensitive median line in the Taiwan strait. The exercise also features live-fire drills, the use of drones, rocket artillery, large amphibious attack ships, and even coast guard vessels in a pattern that may simulate blockade operations against the island.
“While disturbing and disruptive, Americans should not be overly concerned. The situation is more likely political theater than a real start to an attack. Even in the unlikely event that the present situation evolves into a genuine cross-strait military scenario, the U.S. does not have any vital interests at stake in Taiwan, which is not a treaty ally. Taiwan’s role in global microchip fabrication is hardly justification for considering war against another nuclear-armed superpower, nor are U.S. allies Japan and the Philippines much threatened by a cross-strait conflict. Indeed, it is likely that the new administration in Tokyo is partly to blame for this escalation. In November, the Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi recklessly sought to link Japanese and Taiwanese security—a provocative and unnecessary step.
“The best way to preserve Taiwan’s autonomy will be if the U.S. and its allies seek to lower tensions with China by adhering more closely to the ‘One China policy,’ decreasing military deployments to the western Pacific, and pressing for increased cross-strait dialogue. On the deterrence side, Taiwan can be encouraged to pursue a more realistic defense strategy by enhancing training for reserve forces and focusing on cheaper, asymmetric weapons like sea and land mines. The focus for the relevant parties must remain on caution and diplomacy, since the losses from a war would be devastating for all.”
Read more: Target Taiwan: Challenges for a U.S. intervention
Author
Events on Asia
