Background
Expert surveys are unique in the world of public opinion research. They are not representative of the general public and because they draw from a specialized population, their samples tend to be smaller than polls of randomly selected individuals. However, they can be representative of expert opinion on specific topics. This survey looks specifically at expert opinion on U.S. national security and military strategy, Chinese security especially as it relates to Taiwan, and cross-strait relations.
Methodology
Our survey was sent by email to 162 possible respondents in late January 2025. Our pool of experts was compiled from a review of three sources: (1) U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission testimony conducted between 2019 and 2023 (experts with a narrow focus on economics or technology were excluded to leave only those with military or defense expertise); (2) articles published in the print or online editions of Foreign Affairs and leading peer-reviewed international security journal articles between 2019 and 2024 on U.S. strategy in Asia, Chinese military and security issues, cross-strait relations, and other related topics; (3) the China or Asian security programs at top Washington, DC think tanks and U.S. universities. Only U.S.-based experts were included in our survey but the resulting sample was diverse with regard to political and foreign policy viewpoints, government experience, gender, and age.
Of the 162 experts we contacted, 51 replied for a response rate of about 31 percent, which is just above the average survey response rate of 20–30 percent. The survey was anonymous, so we do not report demographic or other identifying information on the respondents.
Since the sample is relatively small, we present the results using the number of respondents rather than percentages. All but two questions had 51 respondents; the final two questions had only 44.
For a full analysis of these survey results, please see Jennifer Kavanagh’s “Will the U.S. go to war over Taiwan? Interpreting the results of an expert survey.”
Survey results
How would you assess the likelihood of a Chinese military invasion of Taiwan in the next five years?
If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan, how would you assess the likelihood that Beijing preemptively strikes U.S. bases in Japan and Guam?
If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how would you assess the likelihood that the United States . . .
If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how would you assess the political pressure that an American president would face to send U.S. forces to defend the island?
If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States sends military forces to defend the island, how would you assess the likelihood that U.S. regional allies contribute troops to fight alongside U.S. forces?
If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and does not strike U.S. targets at the outset, how do you think the U.S. should respond?
If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States sends military forces to defend Taiwan, how would you assess the likelihood that China achieves its objective of seizing Taiwan, assuming no nuclear weapons were used?
If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States sends military forces to defend Taiwan, how long do you expect the conflict to last before one side achieves its objectives or a settlement is reached?
If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States sends military forces to defend the island, what is your best estimate of the total U.S. military fatalities (as a reference point, U.S. fatalities in Vietnam were 58,000 and U.S. fatalities in World War II were 400,000)?
If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan and the United States sends military forces to defend the island, how would you assess the likelihood that nuclear weapons, tactical or strategic, are used by either the United States or China?
How would you assess the military and economic benefits China would gain were it to seize Taiwan?
How would you assess the importance of maintaining the status quo in China-Taiwan relations to U.S. military power and U.S. economic growth?
If China launches a military invasion of Taiwan, the United States stays uninvolved, and China succeeds in seizing the island, how would you assess the likelihood that U.S. allies . . .
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