Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement on a ceasefire after nearly fifteen months of brutal fighting in the occupied Palestinian territory. If approved by the Israeli cabinet (which is not certain at the time of writing), the deal would mark a watershed moment in the decades-long Israel-Palestine conflict and a critical point of reprieve for innocent people on both sides. However, it is important to note that the ceasefire is merely the starting point of a tumultuous path forward—not the end. How key stakeholders engage in that path will define the direction of the conflict and broader geopolitical dynamics across West Asia.
The region has experienced a tumultuous period since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023. Since those attacks, Israel has largely decimated Gaza, invaded Lebanon, and launched attacks on its enemies in Syria, Iran, and Yemen. The Biden administration, alongside fellow mediators Qatar and Egypt, presented multiple iterations of the current ceasefire agreement throughout the last year to end what had become a regional conflict. Nearly 47,000 have died as those talks repeatedly stalled—most of them Palestinian civilians that Israel killed in Gaza during its quest to eliminate Hamas.
That stark reality makes the current agreement all the more bittersweet, given that it largely resembles a proposal outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden and the United Nations Security Council endorsed in May 2024. While U.S. officials heaped blame for the May deal’s collapse on Hamas—alongside multiple collapses in subsequent months—Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right governing coalition members actively and openly tanked negotiations whenever they reached a potential breakthrough.
Those far-right allies admit as much, leading to last-second confusion around the current agreement in a blatant attempt to prevent a ceasefire once again. Indeed, Israeli officials highlight that last-second Israeli concerns regarding the deal have more to do with coalition politics in Israel—namely, Netanyahu sustaining his power.
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