During his three presidential campaigns, Donald Trump lambasted “forever wars” and “regime change” interventions. More than any candidate, he sensed the war-weariness of Americans after the fiascos in Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya, and especially the dismay of military veterans, 60% of whom voted for him over Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. Trump’s maverick, anti-interventionist “America First” narrative also resonated strongly with those in the Maga movement who have never served in the military, particularly blue-collar workers.
Now, Trump, once an unsparing critic of military misadventures, has bombed the nuclear enrichment installations of Iran, a country that hadn’t attacked the US, wasn’t preparing to and didn’t even threaten war. Since the bombing, Trump has gone further: he has ruminated about regime change in Iran. His transformation has startled many of his Maga acolytes who share Tucker Carlson’s view that Trump risks being dragged into Israel’s fight with Iran and becoming embroiled in his own forever war. The fragile truce agreed to by Iran and Israel may ease their worries if it holds, but Trump might be drawn to regime change again if fighting resumes.
Perhaps Trump floated regime change to scare Iran’s leaders into dismantling their entire enrichment operation, something Tehran rejected from the outset of the negotiations with Washington. The president may believe that the risk of losing power will force Iran’s leadership, which is already under military pressure from Israel, to relent.
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