If you take his comments at face value, President Donald Trump’s objectives in Venezuela seem clear enough: President Nicolas Maduro needs to pack up his things and get out of Caracas before it’s too late. Trump reportedly reiterated that demand during last week’s phone call with Maduro, even as he rejected the Venezuelan dictator’s demands for international immunity in exchange for handing over the reins of power.
But even if Trump’s goal is obvious, and I’m not sure any of us can say it is with any degree of confidence, another question springs to the surface: What is the motivation for Trump’s decision-making? In other words, why is Trump so desperate for Maduro to go? Is it because Maduro is a tyrant who stole last year’s presidential election? Because he’s the alleged head of a narco-trafficking organization referred to as “Cartel de los Soles?” Because Maduro has turned Venezuela into a supposed outpost for the Russians, Chinese, Iranians, and Cubans in the Western Hemisphere?
I’ve been trying over the last two months to figure out what’s driving Trump’s stance toward Venezuela. None of the explanations provided by the administration is especially convincing to me.
It’s unlikely that Trump’s campaign is about returning democracy to Venezuela. Secretary of State Marco Rubio frequently brings up the fact that Maduro is an illegitimate leader, isn’t recognized by the United States as Venezuela’s official head of state, and blatantly stole the 2024 Venezuelan election after getting trounced by opposition leader Edmundo Gonzalez. All of this is indisputably true. But even so, Trump isn’t a guy who cares about which country practices democracy and which country doesn’t. In fact, one can make the case that Trump gets along with autocrats more than politicians who are card-carrying democrats who cherish free elections. Whether it’s Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Emirati President Mohamed bin Zayed, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, or Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Trump finds dealing with these strongmen far easier than dealing with politicos who are accountable to their constituents and who have to maintain difficult domestic political coalitions. Indeed, Trump probably wouldn’t mind if a right-wing autocrat in the mold of El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele took over from Maduro.
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