After Delta Force swooped into Caracas on Jan. 3 and captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro, there was widespread anticipation that the country would return to democracy. Better times were thought on the near horizon after more than a decade in which the economy shrank by three-quarters and about a quarter of the population migrated due to political persecution and poverty. The Venezuelan opposition, which had been jailed and exiled for the last quarter-century, was suddenly provided a gift from the American president. Maria Corina Machado, who saw her party’s 2024 presidential election victory thrown out by Maduro, started making plans to return home.
Six months after Maduro’s ouster, none of the above has come to pass.
That’s because the Trump administration decided to play it safe. Instead of uprooting the entire Chavista system root-to-branch and quickly holding elections, President Donald Trump opted to leave the existing structure in place for the purposes of maintaining order. The same senior Venezuelan officials, such as Diosdado Cabello, who were charged with smuggling drugs into the United States and still have FBI bounties on their heads, are now walking with U.S. officials as if they’ve been granted immunity. Rather than organize Machado’s immediate return, Washington asked her to stay in the U.S., lest she cause problems after she crossed the Venezuelan border. And while U.S. officials talked about the eventual return of democracy, it wasn’t exactly the first, second, or even third item on the U.S. checklist. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, an avid Venezuela hawk as a senator, was now prioritizing stability over everything else.
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