On Sunday, Feb. 22, elite Mexican special operations forces acting on intelligence handed over by the CIA tracked down one of Mexico’s biggest criminals: Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera Cervantes, the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), Mexico’s most powerful criminal organization.
Oseguera’s killing was the Mexican government’s most significant tactical success since the 2016 rearrest of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, who was later extradited to the United States, tried, and sentenced to life in prison. The operation is also a boon for Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s security strategy, which focuses on the dual track of alleviating the socioeconomic factors that help drive cartel recruitment and strengthening coordination between the Mexican state’s various security services. Politically, Sheinbaum will earn some political cushion, however brief, with President Trump, who frequently presses the Sheinbaum administration to act even more aggressively against the country’s cartel networks. The White House commended the Mexican army for Oseguera’s takedown and noted, again, that Washington expects the pace of operations to accelerate in the future.
Despite an impressive mission against a high-value target, multiple questions hang in the balance. First, will Oseguera’s demise represent a turning point in Mexico’s two-decade-long war against the cartels, or will it be another instance in which a tactical success fails to lead to long-lasting changes in the country’s security situation? How much of a reprieve will Sheinbaum get from the Trump administration, which has proved notoriously impatient for headline-grabbing results? And how will U.S.-Mexico bilateral relations evolve over the remaining three years of Trump’s presidency? While certainly a successful operation, Osguera’s death risks sparking new violence within and among cartels, and Sheinbaum will remain under pressure—especially from Trump—to keep up the momentum.
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