With the United States focusing its trade war on China, this provides an opportunity for NATO and Congress to help transition America’s defense focus to the Pacific, as outlined by a recent Pentagon memo. The NATO alliance is lop-sided: Europe receives most of the benefits, while the United States is the largest contributor, yet faces no conventional threat from Russia, NATO’s main rival. Furthermore, the United States faces urgent and rising threats in other parts of the globe which will readily impact Americans’ way of life far more than Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Trump administration argues NATO countries should be more responsible for their own defense, a concern that predates even Trump’s first term. Even if burden-shifting sounds reasonable, reason has little bearing in Congress. Moreover, European leaders are not incentivized to end their free riding. President Trump’s term expires in 2028, and the process of Europe building up their military without the U.S. carrying most of the burden may take a decade or more. The Trump administration needs to build a sustainable understanding with Congress so they will continue putting pressure on Europe to pick up the slack regardless of who occupies the presidency.
Although most elected Republicans do not want to cross President Trump, they’ve demonstrated they’re open to legislatively deny his agenda in the past. The only veto which was overridden in Trump’s first term was the last National Defense Authorization Act of his first administration (it is worth noting this occurred when he was a lame-duck president). Even if the Trump administration gets everything it wants for the next four years, there needs to be an understanding of the proposed changes between NATO, Congress, and the White House. Those changes start with reimagining the current relationships.
Author
Events on Europe and Eurasia
